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Exam 3: Forecasting

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Question 31

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The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using a four-year simple moving average?

A) 18,750
B) 19,500
C) 21,000
D) 22,650
E) 22,800

F) None of the above
G) A) and E)

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Question 32

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Given forecast errors of 4, 8, and −3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

A) 4
B) 3
C) 5
D) 6
E) 12

F) B) and C)
G) A) and E)

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Question 33

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For new products in a strong growth mode, a low alpha will minimize forecast errors when using exponential smoothing techniques.

Time-series techniques involve the identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

Forecasts based on judgment and opinion do not include:

Given forecast errors of 5, 0,−4, and 3, what is the mean absolute deviation?

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?

A seasonal relative (or seasonal indexes)is expressed as a percentage of average or trend.

Customer service levels can be improved by better:

Suppose a three-period weighted average is being used to forecast demand. Weights for the periods are as follows: w _t-3 = 0.2, w _t-2 = 0.3 and w _t-1 = 0.5. Demand observed in the previous three periods was as follows: A _t-3 = 2,200, A _t-2 = 1,950, and A _t-1 = 2,050. What will be the demand forecast for period t?

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

The owner of Yummy Yummy Catering needs to ensure she has enough employees scheduled for the upcoming week to assist with cooking. She needs to forecast the number of clients that will book her services. She has the following historical data: What is the forecast for this week using weighted moving average with weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2?

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

The naive forecast can serve as a quick and easy standard of comparison against which to judge the cost and accuracy of other techniques.

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: What is this year's forecast using a two-year weighted moving average with weights of 0.7 and 0.3?

A tracking signal focuses on the ratio of cumulative forecast error to the corresponding value of MAD.

Forecasts help managers both to plan the system itself and to provide valuable information for using the system.

When new products or services are introduced, focus forecasting models are an attractive option.